"Lost" predictions and ruminations

No spoilers here, just conjecture.

So I've been sitting at this computer all day today, watching "Lost" episodes from seasons 3, 4 and 5 (mostly 5), and I've been thinking a lot about what Season 6 is going to be like. Here are some general predictions/observations inspired by tonight's marathon:

• We already know how Widmore "changed the rules." A lot of "Lost" fans are waiting to hear what those rules are that Ben was talking about at the end of "The Shape of Things to Come," in which Mr. Linus pledges to kill Penny Widmore. I think most of us assumed these rules were some kind of edict handed down by Jacob, Richard or Smokey, but I think Ben's merely referring to something Widmore said in "Dead is Dead," the fifth-season episode that depicts Ben's judgment by Smokey. In the flashbacks, Ben spares Danielle and takes Alex, which pisses off Widmore. Widmore seems to think the island wants the child to die, and reminds Ben of this as he is carted off in the submarine in a subsequent flashback: "If the island wants the child to die, she will die," he says. (I'm paraphrasing.) But Widmore "changes the rules," as Ben says, when his goon, Keamy, kills her.

• Ben is going to die. There are many parallels between John and Ben, and it's only fitting if the faux-Locke -- Esau, as most fans have taken to calling him -- kills the man who strangled John Locke. Ben and Locke have the most tragic stories of anyone on the island, and that's really saying something; it would seem unfair to John if Ben were allowed to survive.

• Hurley and Charlie will be very important in Season 6. In "This Place is Death," the Season 5 ep in which we first see the temple and John turns the frozen wheel, the French scientists who come to the island in 1988 hear a voice reciting the numbers over a radio, and it sure sounds like Hurley's voice. For some reason, Hurley will make the transmission that will later be heard by his roommate at the nuthouse, whose incessant repetition of the numbers leads to Hurley winning the lottery with them. Will we also learn that Charlie -- perhaps speaking through Hurley, because dead is dead after all -- was the musician who programmed the code into the Looking Glass's computer? And what's in that guitar case that Hurley brought aboard Ajira 316?

• Jacob is responsible for separating the Ajira survivors. He must have discovered Esau's plan to kill him, and put Jack, Kate and Hurley in 1977 for a reason -- detonating Jughead, I'm guessing. Ben was needed in 2007 to help carry out Esau's plan, which I believe Jacob let happen. But why is Sun in 2007? That I don't know.

• Esau and Smokey are one and the same. In "Dead is Dead," Ben summons Smokey but it doesn't show up -- because it's taking the form of John Locke. Faux Locke leads Ben to the temple, saying that the island told him where to find it. This helps Esau convince Ben that he needs to follow John. When Ben falls into Smokey's lair, John says he's going to go find a rope. He runs off, and then Smokey appears and judges Ben. It disappears, and manifests itself as Alex, who tells Ben he must follow John's orders. Alex disappears, and suddenly John is back. John, Alex and Smokey are all the same person -- Esau.

That's all for now. This sprained wrist is killing me!